Is BANI replacing VUCA? It is the question L&D professionals keep asking, and it is the second question, not the first. VUCA, VUCA Prime and BANI describe the weather; none of them builds the boat. Drawing on Gallup's 2026 data, new meta-analyses on leadership and coaching, and fresh UK research, Russell Harvey makes the case for building and role-modelling resilience first, so the frameworks have something to stand on.

Leadership research is beginning to shift from VUCA towards BANI — brittle, anxious, nonlinear, incomprehensible. Here is what that means for how organisations should be developing their leaders.